TeraWulf Jumps 90% Year to Date: Buy, Sell, or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - TeraWulf (WULF) shares have appreciated 90.1% year to date (YTD), underperforming the Zacks Financial-Miscellaneous Services industry and the Zacks Finance sector's returns of 5.2% and 13.4% respectively [1] - The company reported revenues of $47.6 million in Q2 2025, reflecting a 38% sequential increase and a 34% year-over-year increase [1][10] - TeraWulf self-mined 485 bitcoin in Q2 2025, with mining capacity increasing 45.5% year over year to 12.8 EH/s [2] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $14.5 million, down 25.6% year over year, compared to a negative $4.7 million in Q1 2025 [2] - Power cost per bitcoin self-mined increased by 98.5% year over year due to halving, rising network difficulty, and power price volatility [2] - Selling, general and administrative expenses are expected to be between $50 million and $55 million, up from previous guidance of $40-$45 million due to accelerated growth in the HPC business [3] Strategic Developments - TeraWulf is set to deliver 72.5 MW of HPC colocation capacity under data center lease agreements with Core42, expected to generate revenues starting Q3 2025 [5] - A deal with Fluidstack will provide over 360 MW of critical IT load at the Lake Mariner data center, with the facility capable of expanding to 500 MW and potentially 750 MW [6] - The Fluidstack deal represents approximately $6.7 billion in contracted revenues, with total expected contract revenues reaching $16 billion, supported by Alphabet's $3.2 billion credit [7] Competitive Landscape - TeraWulf has outperformed peers like Riot Platforms (55.7% YTD) and Cleanspark (12.4% YTD) [9] - The company faces significant competition from Riot Platforms and Cleanspark, both of which are also vertically integrated bitcoin mining companies [10] Valuation and Market Position - TeraWulf's stock is currently trading at a price/book ratio of 25.07X, significantly higher than the industry average of 3.67X, indicating a premium valuation [14] - Despite trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the stock is considered overvalued [17][14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TeraWulf's loss for 2025 has widened to 27 cents per share, compared to a loss of 19 cents per share in 2024 [20]