Nosebleed Valuation: Why Nebius's Microsoft Deal Changes Everything
ZACKS·2025-09-15 19:25

Core Insights - Nebius Group is a leading AI infrastructure company based in the Netherlands, specializing in AI-centric cloud platforms and full-stack infrastructure for AI workloads [1][4] - The company has two main business segments: AI Infrastructure and AI Cloud Services, catering to the needs of mega-cap tech companies [2][3] - Nebius stands out from competitors due to its vertically integrated model, providing proprietary AI software and hardware [4] Strategic Partnerships - A significant competitive advantage for Nebius is its partnership with Nvidia, which provides priority access to the latest GPUs, essential for running advanced AI models [5] - Nvidia has invested approximately $700 million in Nebius, indicating a strong commitment to the partnership [5] Recent Developments - Nebius secured a transformative multi-year contract with Microsoft worth $17.4 billion, with potential growth to $19.4 billion, granting Microsoft access to Nebius' data center and GPUs [8][10] - Following the Microsoft deal, Nebius' market cap was surpassed by the contract value, leading to expectations of substantial revenue growth [10] Financial Projections - Zacks Consensus Estimates project significant revenue growth for Nebius, with expected sales of $569.85 million for the current year and $1.55 billion for the next year [11] - Year-over-year growth estimates indicate a dramatic increase of 384.98% for the current year and 172.41% for the next year [11] Market Reaction - The announcement of the Microsoft contract led to a 50% spike in Nebius shares, with trading volume increasing by 557% above the norm [12] - Historical examples suggest that significant price gaps following major contracts can lead to substantial long-term returns [14][15] Conclusion - Nebius Group's vertically integrated model, strategic partnership with Nvidia, and the recent Microsoft contract position it as a formidable player in the AI industry [16]