贝莱德上调美债评级至“中性” 预计美联储本周开启降息周期

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, has upgraded its rating on U.S. long-term Treasuries from "underweight" to "neutral" as investors anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy Adjustments - BlackRock's tactical investment stance for U.S. long-term Treasuries has been adjusted to "neutral" for the next 6 to 12 months, ending a long-standing "underweight" strategy [1] - The company has also downgraded its position on short-term Treasuries from "overweight" to "neutral" [1] - The adjustment is based on the expectation of a short-term decline in Treasury yields, despite structural factors pushing yields higher in the long term [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.3 basis points to 4.034%, marking its fourth consecutive week of decline, although it remains above the 52-week low of 3.622% reached last September [1] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4% to 4.25% [1] - BlackRock's Jean Boivin noted that a weak labor market provides a reasonable basis for the Fed to cut rates, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Long-term Economic Outlook - Despite inflation risks, BlackRock maintains a "risk-on" stance, believing that U.S. economic growth, while slowing, remains resilient, and corporate earnings will continue to be stable [2] - The market's driving factors are shifting from tariffs and policy uncertainty to a balance between inflation, economic growth, and government debt [2] - BlackRock's long-term strategic allocation still favors inflation-linked bonds over long-term government bonds [2] Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Considerations - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time highs, indicating positive market sentiment [3] - BlackRock views the Fed's upcoming policy decision as a potential turning point for global markets, with the possibility of supporting both U.S. equities and long-term Treasuries if the rate cut occurs under controlled inflation and sustained economic growth [3] - However, the market must remain vigilant regarding the potential resurgence of inflation [3]