开源证券：“反内卷”有望托抬煤价，煤炭核心价值将被重塑

Core Viewpoint - The current prices of thermal coal and coking coal are at historical lows, providing room for a rebound due to supply-side policies and seasonal demand recovery [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-side "overproduction checks" policy is leading to a contraction in output, while the demand-side expectations for the "golden September and silver October" peak season are improving non-electric coal demand [1] - The coal supply-demand fundamentals are expected to continue improving, with both types of coal showing upward price elasticity [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Dividends - Despite the overall profit pressure expected in 2025, most coal companies maintain high dividend yields, indicating strong dividend intentions [1] - Six listed coal companies have announced mid-term dividend plans, with a total dividend scale of 24.13 billion, continuing the trend of seven companies' dividends in mid-2024 [1] - The willingness and frequency of dividends among coal enterprises have significantly increased, reflecting the dual attributes of the coal sector in terms of cycles and dividends [1] Group 3: Investment Timing - The coal sector is currently at a low holding position, and the fundamentals are at a turning point, indicating that it is an opportune time for investment [1]