美债收益率在美联储货币政策会议前下跌

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. Treasury yields have generally declined, with traders predicting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1][2] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.87 basis points to 4.0356%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 2.10 basis points to 3.5347% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is estimated at 95.9%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 4.1% according to CME's FedWatch [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Morgan Stanley caution that regardless of whether the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish or hawkish stance, they may remain cautious about committing to a loose monetary path due to uncertain inflation prospects [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to have unclear policy guidance, with the dot plot likely lacking a unified direction, preparing the market for "inconsistent signals" [2] - The appointment of new Federal Reserve officials is another focal point for the market, with uncertainty surrounding the participation of Governor Cook and the confirmation of Stephen Moore [2] Group 3 - Former St. Louis Fed President Brad expressed interest in the Fed Chair position, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency and ensuring low and stable inflation [2] - Brad anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut and signals for further easing, suggesting that a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by the end of the year is reasonable [2]