美联储降息在即 美债一举夺魁! 年内跑赢全球主权债

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rise in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has shifted the outlook for U.S. Treasury bonds, making them the top-performing sovereign debt market globally [1][4] - According to Bloomberg's statistics, the return on U.S. government securities is projected to be 5.8% by 2025, outperforming 15 other major bond markets [1][4] - The excess return of U.S. Treasury assets compared to global peers has decreased to its lowest point in three years, despite still being significantly higher than developed markets [1][4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are based on a weakening economy rather than a strong one, which could support U.S. Treasury performance [2][4] - Market focus is shifting towards the specifics of the Federal Reserve's easing policy, with expectations of three 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year [4][5] - The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has decreased by approximately 50 basis points this year, indicating rising bond prices [5] Group 3 - The ongoing weak U.S. dollar has led international investors to seek returns in non-dollar assets, impacting the relative performance of U.S. Treasuries [8][11] - Despite strong performance in local currency terms, U.S. Treasuries have lagged behind other sovereign bonds when measured in U.S. dollars due to currency fluctuations [11] - Major investment firms are currently favoring European and UK bonds over U.S. Treasuries, reflecting a shift in investment strategy [11]