天然橡胶：宏观情绪向好 胶价高位震荡

Group 1 - As of September 15, cup rubber prices are at 51.00 THB/kg, while latex prices remain unchanged at 56.20 THB/kg. The purchasing price for Yunnan rubber is 14,800 CNY/ton, an increase of 200 CNY, and Hainan private rubber is at 16,100 CNY/ton, unchanged. Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard rubber is priced at 1,870 USD/ton, up by 10 USD, and Thai mixed rubber is at 15,150 CNY/ton, an increase of 200 CNY [1] - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.61%, an increase of 5.69 percentage points month-on-month but a decrease of 7.31 percentage points year-on-year. The full-steel tire sample enterprises have a capacity utilization rate of 66.31%, up by 5.57 percentage points month-on-month and 4.23 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days month-on-month and 9.71 days year-on-year. For full-steel tire sample enterprises, the average inventory turnover days is 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days month-on-month and a decrease of 4.58 days year-on-year [1] Group 2 - According to QinRex, Côte d'Ivoire's rubber export volume reached 1.05 million tons in the first eight months of 2025, a 14.4% increase compared to 0.92 million tons in the same period of 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year-on-year but decreased by 8.9% month-on-month [2] - The supply side shows a slight decline in overseas raw material prices, with cost support still present. Downstream holiday stocking activities have increased warehouse outflow, leading to expectations of continued inventory reduction for natural rubber [2] - Some full-steel tire companies have raised their pricing policies, resulting in slower sales, while most companies continue previous pricing strategies. Semi-steel tire companies are promoting sales to increase output, and some are intensifying promotions for snow tires. Channel sales are expected to increase due to anticipated price hikes, prompting some distributors to stock up [2]