8月供给收缩，煤价超预期上涨 | 投研报告

Core Viewpoint - In August, coal prices experienced an unexpected surge due to a temporary supply-demand imbalance, with thermal coal showing a significant upward trend for most of the month, while coking coal prices saw a decline towards the end of the month due to seasonal factors [1][3]. Supply and Demand - From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of raw coal reached 3.165 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, but the growth rate is declining. In August alone, the output was 391 million tons, down 3.2% year-on-year but up 2.5% month-on-month [2]. - Terminal demand in the first eight months of 2025 was supported by manufacturing and infrastructure, with electricity demand improving. Fixed asset investment increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment up 5.1% and infrastructure investment up 2.0%, while real estate investment fell by 12.9% [2]. - In August, coal imports increased month-on-month, but the cumulative import volume from January to August 2025 was 300 million tons, down 12.2% year-on-year. The August import volume was 42.737 million tons, down 6.78% year-on-year but up 20.02% month-on-month [2]. Price Trends - Coal prices rebounded unexpectedly in August, with coking coal showing a larger increase. Despite adjustments in the average prices of Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal, Beijing-Tangshan main coking coal, and Tianjin second-grade metallurgical coke since the beginning of 2025, all three varieties saw different degrees of rebound in August [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - With the policy shift driven by anti-involution, short-term market risk appetite has increased, favoring elastic stocks. For thermal coal, the removal of long-term contract price inversion is expected to improve the production-sales ratio and inventory issues in the third quarter. Companies to watch include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, and Shanmei International [4]. - For coking coal, the demand expectations for September and October are positive, and if there are supply disruptions, prices may rebound. Companies to focus on include Lu'an Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [4].