机构看金市：9月16日

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a strong bullish trend in precious metals, particularly gold, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and concerns over economic conditions and geopolitical issues [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Chaos Tiancheng Futures reports that precious metals maintain a strong trend due to unchanged market expectations for interest rate cuts, with overall liquidity remaining loose. Concerns over U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index have led to increased volatility, supporting gold prices [1] - CITIC Construction Futures notes that the U.S. economic data continues to show weakness, with the New York Fed manufacturing index dropping sharply by 21 points to -8.7, significantly below market expectations. This has reinforced the market's focus on interest rate cuts, providing strong support for precious metals [2] - Nomura Securities analysts suggest that the upcoming interest rate cuts are more of an "insurance" measure, indicating a gradual approach to monetary policy to avoid excessive inflation. This gradual easing is expected to suppress the dollar and yields, with a short-term target for gold prices set at $3,700 per ounce [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - Sprot Asset Management's strategist Paul Wong highlights that ongoing attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence by the Trump administration, coupled with inflation driven by tariffs, are raising concerns about stagflation. This trend may lead to a new era where gold replaces the dollar as the primary store of value [3] - As of the end of August, spot gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 31.38%, marking the best performance for the same period since 1979, positioning gold as one of the strongest asset classes this year [3]