US threats of more tariffs on India may just backfire

Core Viewpoint - The White House aims to impose tariffs of up to 100% on China and India, the largest buyers of Russian energy, to weaken Vladimir Putin's war efforts in Ukraine, but faces challenges in gaining consensus from allies like the EU, Japan, and the UK [1][13]. Group 1: Economic Implications - A joint front against China may appeal to some European manufacturers as China has shifted from a trade partner to a rival over the past decade, potentially leading to an influx of Chinese goods in Europe due to tariff-induced rerouting [2][13]. - Protectionist measures against China are deemed anti-consumer and impractical due to China's control over critical raw materials, which could lead to negative repercussions for the global economy [5][13]. - Targeting India for its Russian oil purchases is seen as illogical since India is not a strategic rival to wealthy economies and has been strengthening trade ties with other nations, including a free-trade agreement with the UK [5][11][13]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The U.S. administration appears reluctant to push India closer to China and Russia, despite increasing tariff threats, as it seeks to finalize a trade deal with India [6][11]. - Indian trade negotiators are in a difficult position, aiming to reduce duties on manufactured goods while facing U.S. demands to halt Russian oil purchases and increase imports of U.S. agricultural products [7][10][11]. - Modi's government risks political backlash if it concedes on agricultural issues, which could lead to protests from industrial workers who depend on agricultural income [10][11][12]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - Modi has little to gain from aligning with a Eurasian triangle dominated by Chinese manufactured goods and Russian commodities, which could lead to suboptimal choices under U.S. pressure [11][13]. - Western politicians are cautioned against repeating past mistakes of alienating working-class voters by being overly accommodating to China, which could hinder opportunities for India's youth population [12][13].