花旗更新以太坊预测：基准情景下到年底将跌至4300美元

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has updated its forecast for Ethereum, predicting a decline to $4,300 by the end of the year under a baseline scenario, down from the current $4,515. In a bullish scenario, Ethereum could rise to $6,400, while in a bearish scenario, it may drop to $2,200 [1] Group 1: Market Activity and Value Drivers - Network activity remains a key driver of Ethereum's value, with most recent growth occurring in layer-2 networks, though the "transmission effect" of this value to the Ethereum main chain is still unclear [1] - Citigroup assumes that only 30% of layer-2 activity contributes to Ethereum's value, suggesting that the current price is above its activity-based model valuation due to strong capital inflows and enthusiasm around tokenization and stablecoins [1] Group 2: ETF Inflows and Market Dynamics - Although Ethereum ETF inflows are smaller than Bitcoin's, the price impact per unit of capital is greater for Ethereum. However, due to Ethereum's smaller market capitalization and lower recognition among new investors, inflows into Ethereum ETFs are expected to remain limited [1] - Citigroup analysts believe that macro-level support is limited, and with the S&P 500 index nearing their target of 6,600 points, a significant rise in risk assets is not anticipated [1]