硅料景气度有所下行 | 投研报告

Market Overview - The mechanical equipment, electric equipment, and automotive industry indices experienced weekly changes of +3.52%, +0.53%, and +1.74% respectively, ranking 7th, 22nd, and 15th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries; during the same period, the CSI 300 index changed by +1.38% [2] Industry Insights Photovoltaics - The silicon material market showed a decline in sentiment, with the main contract for polysilicon dropping by 4.09% to a closing price of 4.40; the market had anticipated the implementation of storage-related funds and review matters in September, but these expectations have not materialized, negatively impacting market sentiment [3] - The expected output for September is 125,000 tons (equivalent to 65-66 GW), which is a slight decrease compared to August; the decline in silicon material prices is attributed to limited production cuts and weak downstream component demand [3] Industrial Gases - Overall industrial gas prices saw a weekly decline; as of September 11, 2025, the average price of liquid oxygen in China was 478 RMB/ton (down 3.2% from the previous week), liquid nitrogen was 451 RMB/ton (down 2.5%), and liquid argon was 609 RMB/ton (up 1.16%); rare gases showed stable prices [4] - The short-term decline in gas prices is mainly due to improved operational efficiency of air separation equipment and insufficient short-term demand from the steel and coal chemical industries; the industrial gas sector is currently at a cyclical low, with potential for a reversal due to supply optimization [4] Automotive - In the first week of September, the retail market for passenger vehicles saw a year-on-year decline of 10%, while the retail of new energy vehicles decreased by 3%, aligning with the typical transition between the end and beginning of the month; retail sales for passenger vehicles reached 304,000 units, a 10% decrease year-on-year [5] - The decline in the new energy vehicle market was less severe than the overall market, with retail sales of 181,000 units, down 3% year-on-year; the automotive market is expected to maintain rapid growth due to promotional activities and the upcoming sales peak in September and October [5]