Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-09-16 07:06Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with significant declines in both thermal and coking coal prices in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [2][3]. Price Trends - In H1 2025, the average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Shanxi origin) Q5500 was 676 CNY/ton, down 22.8% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, the price dropped significantly to an average of 632 CNY/ton, a decrease of 12.4% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The average price of coking coal at Jingtang Port (Shanxi origin) in H1 2025 was 1379 CNY/ton, down 38.8% year-on-year, with Q2 2025 averaging 1315 CNY/ton, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8.8% [1][2]. Company Performance - In H1 2025, 27 listed coal companies (excluding Shanxi Coking Coal) produced a total of 610 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, but sales fell to 650 million tons, down 5.4% year-on-year. The total revenue for these companies was 538.4 billion CNY, a decrease of 18.1% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 billion CNY, down 31.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - The weighted average gross margin for these companies was 28.8%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 13.3%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 4.8%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The coal price is expected to rebound due to policy support and market dynamics, with thermal coal prices projected to recover to long-term contract prices around 700 CNY/ton. The forecast for thermal coal prices in 2025 is around 750 CNY/ton, with a potential peak at 860 CNY/ton [5][6]. - Coking coal prices are anticipated to be influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The current ratio suggests target prices for coking coal of 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY for various scenarios [6]. - Despite the overall profit pressure in 2025, many coal companies maintain high dividend yields, with six listed companies announcing interim dividend plans totaling 24.13 billion CNY, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [6].