华安基金：本周美联储或重启降息，港股流动性有望受益

Market Overview and Key Insights - The Hong Kong stock market's dividend sector saw an increase last week, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Total Return Index rising by 4.14%, the Hang Seng Index by 4.04%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.34% [1] - Active foreign capital returned to the Hong Kong stock market, with a net inflow of HKD 60.8 billion from southbound funds last week [1] - The U.S. job market has shown signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, indicating economic cooling [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and an overall expectation of three cuts within the year [1] Federal Reserve Impact on Hong Kong Stocks - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts may benefit the capital flow into Hong Kong stocks, as the market is sensitive to U.S. monetary policy changes due to its peg to the U.S. dollar [2] - Historically, the Hang Seng Index has shown a negative correlation with the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, suggesting that a rate cut could lead to increased investment in undervalued Hong Kong stocks [2] Dividend Strategy and Valuation - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index has a dividend yield of 6.25%, significantly higher than the 4.51% yield of the CSI Dividend Index, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.62 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.98 [2] - Since early 2021, the total return index has gained 141%, outperforming the Hang Seng Total Return Index by 126% [2] - The low interest rate environment and weak economic recovery in China are favorable for dividend strategies, with strong dividend capabilities from state-owned enterprises [2] ETF Overview - The Huaan Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (code: 513920) tracks the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index, focusing on high-dividend securities listed in Hong Kong with state-owned enterprise majority ownership [3] - This ETF is the first in the market to combine the attributes of Hong Kong stocks, state-owned enterprises, and dividends [3] ETF Performance - The Huaan Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF had a net asset value of 1.6275 billion and a trading volume of 10.27 billion last week [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include China Nonferrous Mining (4.7% weight, 16.1% weekly increase) and China Merchants Energy (3.7% weight, 13.2% weekly increase) [5]