Core Insights - The euro has risen to its highest level since July 3, reaching 1.1791 USD, marking a 0.3% increase and nearly a 14% rise since 2025, the best nine-month performance on record [1] - A potential breakthrough above the July high of 1.1829 USD could set a new peak since September 2021, with options trading indicating a possible approach to the significant 1.20 USD level [1] - Traders are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which could create a divergence between the euro and European Central Bank rates, enhancing the euro's appeal [1] Market Sentiment - The one-week risk reversal indicator shows increasing demand for euro call options since the European Central Bank hinted at the end of its easing policy, with over two-thirds of euro-dollar options traded being bullish [2] - There is particularly strong demand for options with strike prices above 1.20 USD, indicating growing investor confidence [2] - Hedge funds that previously sought bullish opportunities through complex structures are now shifting to simpler bets on growth, reflecting an increase in market sentiment [2] Tactical Positioning - According to Morgan Stanley strategists, the tactical positioning of the dollar is neutral ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, suggesting that if the Fed confirms expectations for three rate cuts this year, the euro may have further upside potential [6]
看涨情绪浓烈！欧元兑美元迈向四年高位 剑指1.20关键心理关口
智通财经网·2025-09-16 08:24