Business Insiderยท2025-09-16 09:15Core Viewpoint - The stock market may be on the verge of reversing its recent rally, with several key technical risks identified by Bank of America's chief technical strategist, Paul Ciana [1]. Group 1: Market Performance and Historical Trends - The S&P 500 has reached a new high, surpassing the summer target of 6,500 and approaching a secondary target of 6,625 [2]. - Historically, the last 10 days of September are characterized by poor performance for the S&P 500, with only a 40% success rate and an average return of -1.1% since 1928 [5]. - In presidential election years, the S&P 500 performs even worse during this period, with only a 29% success rate and an average return of -1.5% [6]. Group 2: Technical Indicators and Market Signals - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently broken out to a new all-time high, but the Dow Jones Transportation Average has not confirmed this breakout, indicating potential loss of momentum [8][13]. - Market breadth indicators are showing signs of weakness, with the NYSE advance-decline line stalling and S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average making "lower highs" [14][15]. - The number of S&P 500 stocks considered "overbought" has also declined, suggesting a need for a broad market rally to resolve these divergences positively [16][17].