Warner Bros. Discovery Stock To $30?

Core Thesis - Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has shown significant recovery in 2025, trading around $18 after positive earnings surprises and advancements in streaming profitability [2][6] - The company reported $9.81 billion in revenue for Q2 2025, with a profit of $293 million in the streaming segment, indicating strong international subscriber growth [3][4] - Investors currently value WBD at approximately 9–10 times its forward earnings, which is a discount compared to competitors like Netflix and Disney [4] Key Growth Drivers - Expansion of streaming subscribers through the international launch of "Max" and growth in ad-supported subscribers enhances scale and average revenue per user (ARPU) [5] - Successful studio releases, such as the Minecraft movie, demonstrate WBD's ability to generate significant box office revenue [5] - The restructuring into "Streaming & Studios" and "Global Linear Networks" highlights growth potential and possible spin-offs [5] - The introduction of ad-supported streaming tiers boosts monetization while appealing to cost-conscious consumers [5] - Ongoing debt repayment efforts can reduce interest burdens and improve free cash flow, thereby increasing equity value [5] Financial Outlook - If WBD can grow its streaming base to 150 million subscribers by 2026 and stabilize cash flow from linear networks, earnings could reach $2–2.50 per share [4] - A conservative earnings multiple of 12–15 times could justify a stock price in the $25–30 range, representing a potential upside of 50–80% from current valuations [4][6] Risks to the Thesis - The company faces high execution demands and intense competition in the streaming market [6][7] - Challenges include declining advertising revenue in linear TV, high debt load, and competition from major players like Netflix and Disney [9] - Execution risks related to international streaming rollout and content expenditure must be managed effectively [9]