BTC USD Braces For Fed: What do Retail Sales MoM reveal for FOMC?

Core Insights - The market anticipates a significant increase in Bitcoin's market cap, potentially adding $3 trillion to reach $200,000 by 2025, with current trading just above $115,000 [1] - Bitcoin is currently in a critical trading range, needing to break above $116,000 to confirm upward momentum towards $120,000–$125,000, while failure to do so may lead to a retest of $107,500 support [1][4] - On-chain data indicates that short-term holders realized $189 million in daily profits last week, contributing to near-term selling pressure [2] Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Impact - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 96% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, which could lead to a surge in Bitcoin prices if the Fed adopts a dovish tone [3] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma with weaker labor data supporting rate cuts, while persistent inflation near 3% complicates their decision-making [3] - Institutional interest is evident with $2.3 billion in inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, suggesting bullish positioning ahead of the Fed meeting [5] Economic Indicators - US retail sales rose by 0.5% in July, aligning with forecasts, and June's figure was revised to a 0.9% increase, indicating consumer demand and economic strength [6]