Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-16 12:30Core Conclusion - The company is driven by a dual strategy of "internationalization" and "cement integration," establishing both cyclical and growth attributes, thereby unlocking long-term growth potential. It is projected that the company will achieve operating revenues of 35.5 billion, 38 billion, and 40.4 billion yuan, and net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.8 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027. Based on a comparable company's 2025 consensus PE average of 16.2 times, the company is assigned a 2025 PE of 16 times, corresponding to a target price of 21.41 yuan per share, with an initial "buy" rating [1]. Domestic Business - The company is a leading cement manufacturer in Central China, with significant regional advantages. The demand side is supported by high growth rates in cement production in Hubei and Tibet, while the supply side benefits from the elimination of outdated capacity, allowing the company to produce strictly according to approved capacity, minimizing the impact of overproduction policies [3]. - The company holds the top position in aggregate production capacity nationwide and has a first-mover advantage. In the first half of 2025, aggregate sales increased by 6.3% year-on-year, outperforming industry levels. The cost per ton continues to decline, leading to superior profitability compared to major listed peers, with the aggregate gross profit margin reaching 36.6%, higher than its revenue share of 17.22% [3]. International Business - The company is a century-old cement manufacturer and a leader in overseas cement operations, ranking sixth in domestic clinker capacity and third in overseas clinker capacity as of 2024. The company has the largest number of overseas layout points in the country, with its African presence expanding from point to area. The mid-term overseas capacity target is set at 50 million tons, making this an opportune time for overseas expansion [2]. - From a demand perspective, the company's overseas investments are primarily in countries with rapid economic growth, low urbanization rates, and low per capita cement consumption, indicating significant growth potential. If urbanization accelerates, the company is expected to benefit from its first-mover advantage [2]. - In terms of competition, the overall competitive landscape for cement in Africa is relatively fragmented. The controlling shareholder, Haorui Group, holds the second-largest market share in Africa. The company is expected to further expand its market share in Africa, leveraging its shareholder's advantages [2]. - The company's overseas revenue has shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 20% in the first half of 2025, and the profitability level is much higher than that of domestic operations, with an overseas gross profit margin of 37.3%. The acquisition of assets in Nigeria is anticipated to provide strong support for overseas performance [2].