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恒林股份(603661)2025年中报点评:OBM业务驱动增长 利润端短期承压

Core Viewpoint - The company reported mixed financial results for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth but declines in net profit and adjusted net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue increases in certain segments [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 181 million yuan, a decline of 17.55% [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.694 billion yuan, up 9.92% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 130 million yuan, an increase of 10.42% [1]. Business Segments - The OBM (Original Brand Manufacturing) business saw significant growth, with revenue of approximately 2.960 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 26.8%, driven mainly by cross-border e-commerce [2]. - The traditional ODM/OEM (Original Design Manufacturing/Original Equipment Manufacturing) business experienced a revenue decline of about 4.1%, totaling approximately 2.359 billion yuan, with specific categories like office furniture and soft furniture showing mixed results [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross profit margin was 17.88%, down 3.28 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to price reductions for cross-border e-commerce and insufficient operating rates due to tariff impacts [3]. - The company implemented effective cost control measures, achieving sales, management, and financial expense ratios of 6.68%, 3.87%, and 0.15%, respectively, with reductions in each category compared to the previous year [3]. - Asset impairment losses were recorded at 36.29 million yuan, significantly higher than the previous year's 7.91 million yuan, alongside credit impairment losses of 86.7 million yuan compared to a gain of 131.5 million yuan in the prior year [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth driven by its cross-border e-commerce business, with projected net profits of 369 million yuan, 504 million yuan, and 679 million yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12, 9, and 7 times [3]. - A target price of 39.81 yuan per share is set based on a 15X P/E valuation for 2025, reflecting the company's long-term growth potential under its global expansion and brand development strategies [3].