巴西干旱天气或加剧供应短缺 阿拉比卡咖啡豆价格逼近历史高点

Group 1 - Coffee futures prices have surged due to concerns over potential La Niña effects leading to prolonged drought in Brazil, threatening crop yields, with Arabica coffee prices reaching $4.21 per pound [1][3] - Since early August, coffee futures prices have increased by approximately 50%, driven by drought in Brazil, tariffs imposed by the U.S. on South American supplies, and declining inventories [1] - Speculative buying has been observed, particularly following the release of Brazil's August export data and the continued decline in certified Arabica coffee inventories [1] Group 2 - Brazil typically accounts for about 30% of U.S. coffee bean imports, and the inventory of Arabica coffee beans in exchange-regulated warehouses has dropped to its lowest level since April 2024, indicating supply tightness [3] - The NOAA has indicated a 71% probability of La Niña occurring between October and December, which could adversely affect Brazil's coffee crop for 2026-2027, as many had hoped this season's crop would help rebuild inventories [3] - Weather forecasting agency Vaisala reported that Brazil's main coffee-producing regions will continue to experience drought, with unfavorable soil moisture and limited rainfall negatively impacting flowering [3]