西班牙央行上调经济与通胀预测 财政赤字及债务率有望持续改善

Core Viewpoint - The Spanish central bank has released an optimistic economic forecast, indicating steady growth and improvements in fiscal conditions, with adjustments made to GDP and inflation predictions for the coming years [1]. Economic Growth - The Spanish economy is expected to grow by 0.6% to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, reflecting a robust expansion trend [1]. - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 2.4% to 2.6% [1]. - The growth predictions for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively [1]. Inflation - The inflation rate forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased to 2.5%, up from the previous estimate of 2.4% [1]. - This forecasted inflation rate is still lower than the actual inflation level of 2.9% in 2024, indicating a gradual easing of overall inflationary pressures [1]. Fiscal Conditions - The forecast for the government budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for 2025 has been revised down from 2.8% to 2.5%, suggesting improved fiscal discipline and a more stable fiscal situation [1]. Debt Levels - The government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 100.7% by the end of 2025, followed by a decline to 100.4% in 2026 and further down to 100% by the end of 2027 [1]. - This trajectory indicates that the government is making progress in controlling the scale of public debt [1].