Lennar Before Q3 Earnings: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Lennar Corporation is expected to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with adjusted earnings anticipated to decline significantly year-over-year due to market pressures and lower average selling prices [1][22]. Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, Lennar's adjusted earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.1%, while revenues exceeded expectations by 1.6% [1]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted EPS has decreased to $2.12 from $2.14, reflecting a 45.6% decline from the previous year's $3.90 [3]. - Fiscal 2025 is projected to see a 34.8% decline in adjusted EPS alongside a 0.7% decrease in revenue compared to the previous year [4]. Revenue Expectations - Revenues for the fiscal third quarter are expected to decline year-over-year due to weak consumer confidence in home buying, with a consensus revenue estimate of $9.04 billion, down 4% from $9.42 billion a year ago [3]. - Home deliveries are projected to increase by 5.6% year-over-year, but average selling prices are expected to drop by 9.3% [7][8]. Margins and Expenses - The home sales gross margin is anticipated to decrease to approximately 18% from 22.5% reported a year ago, indicating margin compression due to increased incentives and lower average selling prices [12]. - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses are expected to rise to 8-8.2% of home sales, up from 6.7% year-over-year [13]. Orders and Backlog - New orders are forecasted to grow by 9.7% year-over-year, with expectations of 22,000 to 23,000 new orders for the fiscal third quarter [15]. - However, backlog units are projected to decline by 9.1% year-over-year, indicating potential revenue challenges ahead [15]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Lennar's stock has gained 27.9% over the past three months, underperforming its peers in the homebuilding sector [19]. - The stock is trading at a premium compared to the industry, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio higher than its median, suggesting it may be overvalued [20][26].