ZACKSยท2025-09-16 16:26Core Insights - Artificial intelligence is significantly transforming the fintech industry, creating opportunities for firms that effectively utilize data, automation, and predictive models to improve customer outcomes [1] - Intuit Inc. and Upstart Holdings represent two distinct approaches to leveraging AI in financial services [1][3] Intuit Overview - Intuit is building a comprehensive platform through its ecosystem, which includes QuickBooks, TurboTax, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp, targeting consumers, small businesses, and professionals [2] - The company reported a total revenue growth of 16% in fiscal 2025 and projects a growth of 12-13% for fiscal 2026, indicating strong confidence in sustained growth [4] - Intuit is focusing on unifying its offerings into an all-in-one financial operating system, with significant traction in the mid-market segment, which has an $89 billion total addressable market [5] - TurboTax Live saw a 47% increase in adoption in 2025, while Credit Karma grew by 32%, showcasing the effectiveness of AI in enhancing customer engagement [6] - Despite challenges tied to small business health and consumer spending, Intuit's strategy emphasizes resilience and consistent growth through data consolidation and technology investment [7] Upstart Overview - Upstart aims to revolutionize consumer lending with its AI-driven credit underwriting model, targeting a broad market by underwriting 100% of Americans [8] - The proprietary AI model, "Model 22," has improved underwriting accuracy and borrower acquisition efficiency, leveraging a unique dataset of over 91 million repayment events [8] - Upstart is rapidly expanding its product offerings beyond personal loans into auto refinancing and home equity lines of credit, significantly increasing its total addressable market [9][10] - The company has reduced delinquency rates by up to 32% through machine learning improvements, enhancing loan performance and borrower experience [11] - Upstart's innovative approach positions it as a disruptive force in the lending industry, with a focus on scaling its AI capabilities across various financial products [12] Financial Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects Intuit's fiscal 2026 sales to increase by 11.90%, while Upstart's 2025 sales are expected to rise by 51.36% [13][14] - Intuit shares are trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 8.49X, while Upstart is at 5.37X, both below their one-year medians [17] - Over the past six months, Upstart's shares have outperformed those of Intuit and the S&P 500 composite [18] Investment Considerations - Intuit is recognized for its scale, ecosystem synergies, and reliable growth, making it a stable choice in financial software [21] - Upstart presents a more compelling investment opportunity due to its rapid product diversification and disruptive potential in the lending market [21] - Current rankings indicate Intuit holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), while Upstart has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [22]