Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Opendoor Technologies Inc. is positioned as a significant player in the U.S. housing market, especially after competitors like Zillow and Redfin exited the iBuyer space, with the stock trading at $5.96 as of September 4th [1][2] Macro Environment - The U.S. housing market is experiencing extreme interest rate volatility, leading to a stagnation in housing transactions, with existing home sales near Global Financial Crisis (GFC) lows despite demographic trends favoring demand [2] - There is pent-up demand due to homeowners being locked into low mortgage rates from the pandemic, which could benefit Opendoor as mortgage rates decline [2] Business Performance - Opendoor has stabilized its operations after a $7 billion cash burn, now selling approximately 4,000 homes per quarter with contribution profits of around $15,000 per unit [3] - If Opendoor captures 5% of the U.S. existing home market, it could potentially generate $2 billion in after-tax profits, suggesting a valuation of $30 billion compared to its current valuation of about $2 billion [3] Management and Market Sentiment - Recent earnings reports indicate revenue growth and positive EBITDA, although management has expressed caution regarding housing market weaknesses [3] - The resignation of CEO Carrie Wheeler reflects tensions between management and retail investors seeking a more aggressive growth narrative, which could lead to volatility [4] Historical Context - A previous bullish thesis highlighted Opendoor's agent partnership model and disciplined operations, with the stock appreciating approximately 583% since then, indicating resilience and confidence in the company [5] Hedge Fund Interest - As of the end of the first quarter, 21 hedge fund portfolios held Opendoor shares, a decrease from 23 in the previous quarter, suggesting a cautious sentiment among institutional investors [6]