Telesat Corporation (TSAT): A Bull Case Theory

Group 1 - Telesat Corporation (TSAT) is viewed as a highly asymmetric investment opportunity, primarily due to its complex capital structure and the potential of its Lightspeed project [2][4] - The legacy GEO satellite operations are declining and over-levered, while the real value lies in the fully funded 198-satellite low-earth-orbit constellation, Lightspeed, which is set to launch global services in 2026 [2][3] - Lightspeed targets the $320 billion enterprise and government markets, offering competitive latency with Starlink, and has secured $3.5 billion in total capital expenditures through various funding sources [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical factors, including concerns over Starlink's market dominance, have increased demand for alternative satellite providers, leading to significant contract signings for Telesat, resulting in a backlog exceeding C$1.1 billion [4] - Recent credit agreements indicate a potential spin-out of Lightspeed, which would alleviate GEO debt burdens and reveal substantial hidden value, with valuation scenarios suggesting a share price of $70–140, representing an upside of 185% to 457% [5] - Telesat's strategic importance as a Canadian "national champion" is reinforced by government support and financing, positioning it favorably in the current geopolitical landscape [4][5]