Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Hims & Hers Health, Inc. is experiencing a significant stock decline, with a 30% drop following Q2 2025 earnings, raising concerns about its growth trajectory [2] - The company is transitioning from one-off sexual health prescriptions to premium daily-use subscriptions, which is expected to temporarily impact growth but enhance customer retention and lifetime value by 2026 [2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased sequentially for the first time, from $586 million in Q1 to $545 million in Q2, primarily due to weakness in weight loss and a strategic shift in sexual health [2] - Core revenue remained flat at $355 million, while weight loss revenue fell from $230 million to $190 million, attributed to availability challenges with compounded GLP-1s [2] Future Guidance - Guidance for 2025 is projected at $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion, with approximately 15% of revenue exposed to GLP-1 regulation risk [3] - Even in a downside scenario where GLP-1 compounds are eliminated, the base business could still grow at 20% annually, potentially reaching $5 billion by 2030 [3] Revenue Expansion Potential - Hims is diversifying into new categories such as menopause, TRT, lab testing, and AI-enabled care, with potential revenue contributions estimated between $650 million and $1.6 billion by 2030 [3] - This diversification could elevate total revenue to between $5.6 billion and $6.6 billion, supporting management's target of $6.5 billion [3] Valuation Insights - Valuation scenarios indicate potential net income of $600 million to $780 million by 2030, translating to a market cap of $15 billion to $19.5 billion, representing a 1.5x to 2x upside from current levels [4] - Short-term volatility is expected due to GLP-1 and sexual health transitions, but long-term growth relies on successful execution in new verticals and international expansion opportunities [4] Hedge Fund Interest - Hims & Hers Health, Inc. is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 41 hedge fund portfolios holding HIMS at the end of Q1, up from 38 in the previous quarter [6]