Apple vs. HP: Which Stock Has an Edge as AI PC Sales Accelerate?

Core Insights - The personal computer market is projected to grow by over 4.1% year-over-year in 2025, with U.S. shipments expected to reach 70.4 million, reflecting a growth of 1.7% [1][2] - The demand for AI-powered PCs and the end-of-service for Microsoft Windows 10 in October 2025 are significant catalysts for this growth [1] Group 1: Apple - Apple's Mac business is experiencing strong demand for its M4 chip series, including M4, M4 Pro, and M4 Max, with the new MacBook Air offering up to 18 hours of battery life [2] - The latest macOS Tahoe 26 introduces new design features and capabilities, enhancing user experience with personalized options [3] - In Q2 2025, Apple gained market share, reaching 9.1%, a 110 basis point increase year-over-year, with shipments growing 21.4% to 6.2 million [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Apple's Q4 fiscal Mac sales is projected at $8.43 billion, indicating a 9% growth from the previous year [5] - Apple's earnings per share are expected to rise by 9% year-over-year in fiscal 2025, with a consistent track record of beating earnings estimates [9][12] Group 2: HP - HP is positioned to benefit from the growing interest in Generative AI-enabled PCs, with forecasts suggesting that 40-60% of all PCs will be AI PCs in the next three years [6] - In Q3 fiscal 2025, HP's AI PC revenues grew significantly, with AI PC shipments surpassing 25% of its mix, ahead of the company's target [7] - HP's market share in Q2 2025 was 20.7%, down 60 basis points year-over-year, with shipments growing 3.2% to 14.1 million [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HP's fiscal 2026 earnings is projected at $3.10 per share, reflecting an 8.3% decrease from fiscal 2025 [11] - HP shares are trading at a lower valuation compared to Apple, with a Price/Sales ratio of 0.47X versus Apple's 8.21X, indicating a more attractive valuation [17] Group 3: Comparative Performance - Year-to-date, Apple shares have decreased by 5.4%, while HP shares have dropped by 14.9%, indicating relative outperformance by Apple [14] - Both companies hold a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), but the growing demand for Macs is seen as a positive indicator for Apple's stock prospects [20]