央行会否重启买债？债市静候“变量”打破僵局
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-09-16 18:12

Core Viewpoint - The domestic market is experiencing mixed sentiments ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with increased expectations for enhanced growth-stabilizing policies following the release of August macroeconomic data [1] Group 1: Bond Market Trends - The domestic bond futures market saw a rise, with all but the 30-year government bond futures contracts increasing, particularly the 10-year government bond futures contract (T2512) which closed at 108 yuan, up 0.15% [2] - The yield on the 10-year government bond decreased by approximately 1.75 basis points to 1.780%, while the 30-year government bond yield fell to 2.075% [2] - Analysts suggest that the current fluctuations may indicate a potential new upward trend in the bond market, driven by a return to a focus on "stabilizing growth" policies [2][3] Group 2: Policy Expectations - There is speculation about the possibility of new incremental policies being introduced in the fourth quarter to support investment and consumption, as economic pressures remain [3] - The central bank's potential resumption of bond purchases is seen as a key variable that could break the current deadlock in the bond market, with expectations that it could lead to a sustained decline in interest rates [4] - The likelihood of the central bank restarting bond purchases is increasing, especially in light of fluctuating market sentiments and the need to stabilize bond prices [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The relationship between the stock and bond markets is crucial, with the current adjustment in the bond market primarily influenced by the relative attractiveness of stocks [6] - If the A-share market continues to perform well, it may exert upward pressure on bond yields, while a stabilization in the stock market could allow bond yields to realign with economic fundamentals [7] - Historical trends suggest that a bull market in stocks could positively impact consumption and credit data, potentially leading to a rise in bond yields if consumer expectations improve [7]