Caught Between Painful Present and Optimistic Outlook: Copper’s Tariff Price Odyssey

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached record highs in 2025 due to economic uncertainty, making it a safe-haven asset [1] - Copper demand has surged due to the AI computing boom and increased use of electric vehicles, with conventional cars containing up to 50 pounds of copper and battery electric vehicles containing about 180 pounds [2] - Copper prices have experienced significant volatility, including a 20% crash in one day following the announcement of a tariff that only applied to certain copper products, leading to a 4.1% decline over the past six months [3] Group 2 - Analysts at Red Cloud Securities predict a 126,000-tonne surplus of copper in 2026, with a 6% drop in US demand due to tariffs, leading to a revised price forecast of $3.65 per pound for 2026 [3] - McKinsey forecasts that $7 trillion in capital will be needed for data centers to meet AI processing demands by 2030, which will drive future copper demand [3] - Red Cloud anticipates copper deficits starting in 2027, increasing from 19,000 tonnes to 766,000 tonnes by 2030, which is expected to lift prices to $6 per pound [3]