What To Expect From FOMC Meeting: What It Means for Bitcoin and Risk Assets

Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, with a 92% probability of easing due to cooling inflation and weakening labor data [1] - This will be the Fed's first significant pivot since the hiking cycle began in 2022, with markets awaiting confirmation of potential further cuts in October or December [2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - CPI for August is reported at 2.9%, while Core CPI is at 3.1%, indicating a downward trend but still above the Fed's 2% target [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a headline of 3.3% and core at 2.8%, reflecting a similar easing pattern [3] - Job growth is fading, with August's report showing sub-100K monthly gains for the first time since COVID, and June's report indicating a loss of 13K jobs [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - Historically, rate cuts have weakened the dollar and increased demand for scarce assets like Bitcoin, with spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting $2.3 billion in inflows last week [5] - Public companies now hold 950,000 BTC valued at $110 billion, nearly double the amount held in early 2024, indicating strong institutional accumulation [6] Group 4: Bitcoin Technical Analysis - Bitcoin is trading near $115,000, just above its 50-day EMA of $114,500, with this level being critical for market stability [7] - A breakdown could trap Bitcoin between $110K and $115K, while holding above this level could lead to testing resistance at $117K to $120K, with all-time highs near $124.5K in sight [8] Group 5: Market Liquidity Context - Bitcoin futures open interest has increased by 15% since early September, while the total crypto market cap is around $4.05 trillion, indicating steady market conditions despite typical seasonal challenges [9]