ZACKSยท2025-09-16 20:51Core Insights - FedEx is set to report its fiscal first quarter results on September 18, providing updated insights into the delivery services market, which has faced increased pressure from tariffs affecting shipping operations and demand [1][4] - The termination of the de minimis trade exemption at the end of August has led to pronounced weakness in cross-border shipping, and Wall Street is looking for FedEx's perspective on the impact of this change [2][4] Financial Performance - FedEx's Q1 sales are estimated to increase by 1% to $21.78 billion compared to $21.58 billion in the same quarter last year, while Q1 EPS is expected to rise by 1% to $3.65 per share from $3.60 [5] - However, the most accurate estimate suggests FedEx could miss earnings expectations, with the Q1 EPS pegged at $3.47, which is 5% below the Zacks Consensus [5][6] Market Outlook - FedEx's total sales are projected to increase by 1% in fiscal year 2026 and by another 4% in fiscal year 2027, reaching $92.91 billion, with annual earnings expected to rise by 1% in FY26 and spike by 13% in FY27 to $20.73 per share [9] - EPS estimates for FY26 and FY27 have trended lower over the last 30 days, indicating potential challenges ahead [9] Stock Performance - FedEx shares have underperformed, down 7% over the last five years, compared to broader indexes that have returned over 100% [3] - Both FedEx and UPS trade at around 12X forward earnings, which is a steep discount compared to the S&P 500's 25.5X [11] - FedEx's stock has rebounded from a one-year low of $194, but short-term risks may still exist [14]