【环时深度】“奥库斯”协议签署4年：“寒意、焦虑与不安”

Core Points - The AUKUS agreement, signed by the US, UK, and Australia in September 2021, aims to assist Australia in building a nuclear-powered submarine fleet and sharing critical technologies [1][2] - Australia plans to invest AUD 12 billion over the next decade to upgrade the Henderson shipyard near Perth for nuclear submarine construction [1] - There are significant concerns regarding the feasibility of Australia receiving the Virginia-class submarines due to the US's own production challenges and prioritization of domestic needs [3][4] Investment and Financial Implications - Australia is expected to spend up to AUD 368 billion on the AUKUS agreement by the mid-2050s, which includes AUD 8 billion for upgrading the Stirling naval base and GBP 2.4 billion to the UK for submarine design work [2] - The financial burden of the AUKUS agreement has led to public skepticism, with only 25% of Australians willing to pay the estimated costs for nuclear submarines [9] Strategic and Operational Concerns - The US Navy's current production rate of submarines is insufficient to meet both domestic and Australian needs, with a target of 66 submarines but only 49 currently in service [3][4] - The UK is also facing challenges in maintaining its submarine fleet, which complicates the timeline and feasibility of the AUKUS submarine project [5][6] Public Sentiment and Political Reactions - There is growing opposition within Australia regarding the AUKUS agreement, with many citizens questioning its value and potential impact on national security [7][9] - Recent polls indicate a decline in public confidence regarding the safety benefits of the AUKUS agreement, with only 37% believing it enhances national security [9]