Consumer Spending and Economic Indicators - US retail sales increased by 0.5% in July, following a revised 0.9% increase in June, indicating strong consumer spending despite economic uncertainty [2][8] - Preliminary projections for August suggest a further increase of 0.2% in overall retail sales, or 0.4% when excluding automobile and gasoline sales [2][8] - The increase in July was driven by a 1.6% rise in motor vehicle sales, partly due to a rush for electric vehicle purchases before federal tax credits expired [3][8] - Online sales rose by 0.8%, supported by extended Prime Day promotions, while sectors like clothing and furniture saw gains, but building materials and electronics experienced declines [3] Labor Market Trends - The labor market shows signs of strain, with only 73,000 jobs added in July and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest since 2021 [4][5][8] - Revisions to employment data indicate nearly 100,000 fewer jobs were created between March 2023 and March 2024 than initially estimated, highlighting persistent job growth weakness [5] Federal Reserve Response - The divergence between strong consumer spending and a weakening labor market has led to expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5][8] AI Infrastructure Investments - Major American technology companies are committing tens to hundreds of billions of dollars to expand AI infrastructure globally, with OpenAI signing a $300 billion data center agreement with Oracle [6][8] - OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank announced plans to create at least $100 billion in computing infrastructure in the US, with ambitions to expand to $500 billion [7] UK AI Investment - The UK is becoming a key beneficiary of AI infrastructure investments, with Microsoft pledging $30 billion and Google committing approximately $6.8 billion towards AI initiatives [10][11] - The "Stargate UK" project involves Nvidia, OpenAI, and Nscale, aiming to establish significant AI infrastructure in the UK [11] - Other investments include CoreWeave's plan to spend £1.5 billion ($2.04 billion) on UK AI data center capacity and Salesforce's additional $2 billion investment in its UK business through 2030 [11]
US Retail Sales Show Resilience Amidst Labor Market Headwinds, While Tech Giants Pour Billions into AI Infrastructure