黄金再创新高！外资投行进一步上调目标价，贵金属牛市进入加速阶段？

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices has led to a bullish trend in precious metals, with gold reaching a new record high of $3731.9 per ounce on September 16, 2023, and a cumulative increase of 7.37% in domestic gold futures since September [1][2] - Analysts attribute this bullish trend to multiple factors, including expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, increased demand for safe-haven assets, and imbalances in supply and demand [1][7] Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end gold price target to $3800 per ounce, emphasizing the strong inverse correlation between gold and the US dollar [3] - UBS had previously predicted gold prices would reach $3700 per ounce by June 2026, but this forecast has been accelerated due to recent price movements [3] - JPMorgan has also revised its gold price expectations, forecasting an average of $3800 per ounce in Q4 2023 and a potential breach of $4000 per ounce in Q1 2026 [3] Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have also seen significant increases, with COMEX silver futures rising by 41% year-to-date, outperforming gold's 35% increase [5] - Analysts note that the smaller size of the silver market makes it more susceptible to price volatility, and while there is optimism about silver prices, the outlook is more complex compared to gold [6] Macro Economic Factors - The US job market has shown signs of weakness, with unemployment rates reaching a four-year high of 4.3%, leading to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] - Market expectations suggest a high probability of rate cuts in September, with overall expectations for three rate cuts by the end of 2025 [8]