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Core Viewpoint - The retail credit market is experiencing a significant divergence between traditional credit card business contraction and the expansion of personal loans, driven by consumption and growth stabilization policies [2][9]. Credit Card Business Contraction - The total number of credit cards and combined credit cards has declined for 11 consecutive quarters, with a reduction of 12 million cards compared to the end of last year [2]. - Among 15 listed banks, 11 reported a decrease in credit card loan balances compared to the end of last year, highlighting a prominent industry-wide contraction [3]. - The most significant decline in credit card loan balances was observed at Bank of China, with a decrease of 13.89%, followed by Postal Savings Bank at 5.67% [3]. - Credit card transaction volumes and consumer spending are also under pressure, with a notable decline in transaction income for major banks like China Merchants Bank, which saw an 8.54% year-on-year decrease in transaction volume [4][5]. Shift to Personal Loans - In response to the challenges faced by credit card businesses, banks are increasingly focusing on personal loans, particularly in the consumer loan sector, with many banks offering high limits and low-interest rates [2][9]. - Data from six state-owned banks and ten listed joint-stock banks indicate that personal loans and consumer loans have shown significant growth, with several state-owned banks reporting increases exceeding 10% [9][10]. - Agricultural Bank of China led the growth in personal loans with a 5.60% increase, while other state-owned banks also reported positive growth rates [9]. Asset Quality Concerns - The overall asset quality of retail credit is under pressure, with rising non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for personal loans and credit cards among state-owned banks [11][12]. - The NPL ratio for personal loans at major banks like Postal Savings Bank and China Merchants Bank has increased, with the highest NPL ratio for personal consumption loans at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at 2.51% [12]. - In contrast, some joint-stock banks have shown improvements in credit card NPL ratios, with a notable decrease at banks like Industrial Bank and Ping An Bank [13][14].