原油供应过剩警报响起 交易员巨资押注年底油价将暴跌25%

Group 1 - A trader has made a significant bet that Brent crude oil prices will fall below $50 per barrel by the end of the year, citing that the increase in oil supply will outweigh geopolitical risks [1] - On Monday, there was a trading volume equivalent to 10 million barrels of Brent crude oil put options, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] - If the February futures contract price drops approximately 25% from the current level of about $68 per barrel by the expiration of the options on December 23, the buyer of the $50/$49 put options will profit [1] Group 2 - Several well-known energy forecasting institutions are increasingly predicting a supply surplus in the oil market by the end of the year, with analysts from Macquarie estimating a daily surplus of about 3 million barrels in Q4 of this year and Q1 of 2026 [2] - Since August, benchmark crude oil futures have mostly traded within a range of less than $5, with prices previously peaking above $75 per barrel earlier this year before declining due to increased OPEC production and economic pressures from tariffs [2] - Recent attacks by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure have led to a rebound in crude oil futures prices, with expectations of reduced Russian oil exports contributing to a slight market optimism [2]