36小时“议息风云”将至 多国央行“抢跑”降息

Core Viewpoint - A significant global monetary policy shift is anticipated as multiple central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, prepare to announce interest rate decisions within a short timeframe, impacting global capital flows and financial markets [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is particularly noteworthy due to recent personnel changes, including the confirmation of Stephen Milan as a board member, which may influence the decision-making process [2]. - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points, with a possibility of a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points, influenced by the voting inclinations of newly confirmed members [2]. - Analysts predict a more dovish outlook in the Fed's dot plot, with guidance suggesting 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Other Central Banks' Actions - The Bank of England is expected to maintain its interest rate at 4%, following a previous cut of 25 basis points, which was narrowly approved [3]. - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to hold its rates steady, with market participants looking for signals regarding future rate hikes amid ongoing inflation pressures [3]. - Several countries, including Peru and Turkey, have already initiated rate cuts, with Peru reducing its rate by 25 basis points and Turkey by 250 basis points, indicating a trend towards easing monetary policy in response to local economic conditions [4]. Group 3: Emerging Markets and Global Implications - Emerging market central banks are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies, facing pressures such as currency depreciation and capital outflows, which may dictate their monetary policy adjustments [5]. - The potential for the Fed to cut rates could create more room for other central banks to adjust their policies, although actions will depend on each country's economic fundamentals [5].