“中国金龙”，3年来新高！黄金，又新高！

Market Performance - The US stock market experienced a decline on September 16, with all three major indices closing lower: Dow Jones down 0.27% at 45757.90 points, Nasdaq down 0.07% at 22333.96 points, and S&P 500 down 0.13% at 6606.76 points [1][3] - In contrast, Chinese assets performed well, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 1.76%, reaching its highest level since February 2022 [1][3] Chinese Stocks - Popular Chinese stocks saw significant gains, with NIO rising over 8%, Baidu over 7%, JD.com and iQIYI over 3%, and Alibaba over 2% [1][3] Gold Market - International gold prices reached new highs, with London spot gold exceeding $3700 per ounce and COMEX gold futures approaching $3740 per ounce [5][6] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to three short-term catalysts: rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased pressure from President Trump on the Fed's monetary policy, and growing concerns over fiscal sustainability leading to a sell-off of long-term bonds [8] Federal Reserve Expectations - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this week is 96.1%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 3.9% [8] - Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs forecasts that if the Fed's credibility is damaged, gold prices could soar to nearly $5000 per ounce as investors shift some of their US Treasury holdings into gold [8]