智通财经网·2025-09-17 00:53Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a potential recovery in the residential land transaction area in China by H1 2025, driven by increased land acquisition activity from companies, which is expected to positively impact new construction areas [1][7]. Group 1: Demand Recovery - The demand for residential construction in China is approaching a turning point, with new construction areas in 2024 expected to be only 33% of the peak in 2019, but a narrowing decline is anticipated in 2025 [1]. - The transaction area for residential land in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 is projected to be 42.36 million and 50.12 million square meters, respectively, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.4% and 2.3% [1]. - The land acquisition area for sample companies from January to July 2025 is reported at 16.17 million square meters, reflecting a 39% year-on-year increase, indicating a shift from negative to positive in land acquisition data [1]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The ongoing decline in real estate investment demand, coupled with debt pressures on property companies, has led to an increase in bankruptcies among upstream companies, resulting in a consolidation of the construction materials industry [2]. - The number of bankruptcies in the real estate, construction, and home decoration sectors has risen significantly from 2021 to 2024, indicating a trend towards higher industry concentration [2]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Potential - As of September 10, 2025, the PB ratio of the building materials index is at 1.3x, placing it in the bottom 20% of its historical valuation range, suggesting potential for price recovery [3]. - The fund holding ratio for decorative materials is at 0.13%, which is below the standard allocation, indicating that the consumer building materials sector is at a low point with room for growth [3]. Group 4: Waterproof Materials Industry - The waterproof materials market, particularly waterproof membranes, is crucial as it is used in the construction phase to protect buildings from water damage, and the market has faced significant pressure due to declining construction activity [4]. - The production of waterproof materials in 2024 is expected to decline by 38% compared to the peak in 2021, highlighting the challenges faced by the industry [4]. - There is still room for growth in per capita waterproof market demand in China, which currently stands at 64 yuan compared to 288 yuan in the U.S. [4]. Group 5: Price Stabilization and Profitability - The waterproof materials sector has seen a concentration of market share among leading companies, which is essential due to the high cost of errors associated with these materials [5]. - Price increases have been observed in July 2025 from major companies, indicating a turning point in pricing for waterproof materials [5]. - The revenue decline for leading companies in Q2 2025 has narrowed compared to Q1, suggesting a potential bottoming out of industry demand [5].