中金：关注国内外政策走向 2027年后乙烯有望迎来拐点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's ethylene industry is still in an expansion phase, with significant new projects planned, while overseas capacity is facing accelerated exit pressures. A potential turning point for the ethylene market is anticipated post-2027 if domestic and international policies effectively control new capacity and restructure old capacity [1][2]. Group 2 - China plans to invest nearly 25 million tons in ethylene projects over the next three years, with a projected ethylene equivalent gap exceeding 21 million tons by 2024, leading to an import dependency of 31%. If ongoing projects are completed as scheduled, the domestic ethylene gap may be largely filled by the end of 2027 [1]. - The risk of capacity shutdowns is high in Europe and Japan/South Korea, with an estimated 5.97 to 8.3 million tons of capacity expected to exit globally between 2025 and 2027, accounting for 3-4% of global capacity [1]. - The global supply landscape is being reshaped, with net capacity increases projected at approximately 1.126 million tons in 2025, 1.565 million tons in 2026, and 840 million tons in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 4.9%, 6.5%, and 3.3% respectively. A marginal improvement in the ethylene industry is expected post-2027 due to a demand growth rate of around 3.5% annually [2]. - Domestic policies are crucial for the ethylene industry, with a cap on refining capacity set at 1 billion tons. The potential for further clearing of outdated refining and ethylene capacity exists, especially following evaluations initiated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in July 2025 [2].