LAO装置投产高峰在即，看好国内自主α烯烃产业链

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the significant reliance of China's POE consumption on imports, with a projected apparent consumption of 440,000 tons in 2024, almost entirely dependent on imports, while EVA consumption is expected to reach 1,390,000 tons, with imports accounting for only 31% [1][2] - The report indicates a strong domestic substitution trend for ethylene-α-olefin copolymers, as the import volume has significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, driven by the commissioning of new LAO and POE facilities in China [1][2] - The α-olefin industry is characterized by high concentration, with North America holding 62% of global production capacity and the top five producers controlling 86% of the market [2] Group 2 - China's POE market has substantial growth potential, with major global production capacity concentrated in a few companies, particularly Dow Chemical, which holds approximately 48% of the capacity [2] - The report notes that China's α-olefin production capacity is set to break through, with significant advancements in technology allowing for the establishment of new LAO facilities, expected to reach a total capacity of 1,580,000 tons per year by 2026 [3] - The cost of ethylene is critical for controlling the costs of α-olefins and POE, with domestic production benefiting from lower costs compared to North America, despite the latter's advantages in ethylene and energy costs [4] Group 3 - The investment recommendation emphasizes the advantages of China's large refining facilities, which provide strong cost advantages in the production of ethylene, α-olefins, and POE, suggesting a focus on companies like Satellite Chemical and Wanhua Chemical [4]