焦煤：煤炭产地减产预期升温 下游补库需求回暖 期货走反弹预期

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with futures prices rebounding and spot auction prices showing signs of stabilization after a period of decline. The market anticipates limited downside potential, with expectations for replenishment ahead of the National Day holiday [5]. Supply - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines is 85.25%, up by 4.33% week-on-week. The raw coal output is 8.6107 million tons, an increase of 437,600 tons week-on-week. The raw coal inventory stands at 1.9977 million tons, up by 57,000 tons week-on-week [2]. - According to Steel Union, as of September 10, the capacity utilization rate of 523 sampled coal mines is 82.7%, up by 6.9% week-on-week. The daily raw coal output is 1.856 million tons, an increase of 156,000 tons week-on-week [2]. Demand - As of September 11, the average daily coke production of independent coking plants is 668,000 tons, up by 24,000 tons week-on-week. The average daily coke production of 247 steel mills is 466,000 tons, resulting in a total production of 1.134 million tons per day, an increase of 34,000 tons week-on-week [3]. - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4055 million tons, up by 117,100 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 83.83%, an increase of 3.43% [3]. Inventory - As of September 11, the total inventory of coking coal (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, 16 ports, and border ports) decreased by 236,000 tons to 35.759 million tons. The inventory at 523 coal mines decreased by 11,200 tons to 494,900 tons [4]. - The inventory at 314 washing plants increased by 4,700 tons to 458,400 tons, while the inventory at all coking plants decreased by 365,000 tons to 8.835 million tons [4]. Market Strategy - The market strategy suggests taking long positions on the coking coal 2601 contract at lower prices, with a reference range of 1,070 to 1,300. There is also a recommendation to arbitrage long coking coal against short coke, while being cautious of significant market fluctuations [5].