煤焦油深加工产业升级步伐加快

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese coking industry is undergoing significant structural adjustments and green transformation, driven by tightening supply and increasing high-end demand for coal tar deep processing products [2][6]. Supply Dynamics - The recent shutdown of two coking furnaces in Tangshan has led to a reduction of 1.1 million tons of coking capacity, contributing to over 5 million tons of coking capacity being phased out since 2024 [2] - The overall coking production in China is expected to be approximately 470 million tons in 2024, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, with coal tar production estimated at around 20 million tons [2] Environmental Regulations - Stricter environmental policies are causing the closure of non-compliant small coking enterprises, which is likely to further decrease coking production and limit the supply of coal tar, leading to increased costs for deep processing companies [3] Technological Upgrades - The coal tar deep processing sector is facing pressure to upgrade its technology, with current production processes primarily relying on distillation, while hydrogenation technology is gaining traction for producing high-value products [4] - By the end of 2024, China's coal tar deep processing capacity is projected to exceed 26 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of about 3% over the past five years, although capacity utilization remains between 75% and 80% due to outdated technology [4] Market Opportunities - The coal tar deep processing industry has diverse applications, including carbon black, pharmaceutical intermediates, and new energy materials, with carbon black production expected to reach 5.5 million tons in 2024 [5] - The demand for needle coke, a key material for lithium battery anodes, is projected to grow by over 20% year-on-year, reaching 1.2 million tons in 2024, indicating a significant market opportunity [5] Future Trends - The coal tar deep processing industry is anticipated to evolve towards high-end, green, and intelligent development, focusing on product structure upgrades, energy-efficient production processes, and the integration of advanced technologies such as industrial internet and big data [6]