连平：美联储重启降息对全球股市影响几何

Group 1 - The current market has a strong expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 92% probability according to CME FedWatch [1] - The upcoming rate cut is categorized as a preventive measure rather than a crisis response, which historically has different impacts on the stock market [1][8] - Preventive rate cuts can lower corporate financing costs, stimulate mergers and acquisitions, and reduce market risk premiums, potentially boosting stock market valuations [2][3] Group 2 - Historical examples show that preventive rate cuts in 1995-1996 and 1998 led to significant stock market recoveries, with the Nasdaq rising 39.6% in 1995 and 28.2% in 1996 [3] - In contrast, crisis-driven rate cuts often fail to prevent stock market declines due to existing economic downturns and investor panic, as seen during the 2001 and 2007 crises [6][7] - The current economic environment is characterized by "stagflation," with inflation pressures complicating the effectiveness of preventive rate cuts [9][10] Group 3 - The first phase of the current rate cut cycle has not met expectations, with the stock market showing weak performance despite a cumulative 100 basis point cut [10] - The potential for a second phase of rate cuts remains uncertain, with two possible strategies: a cautious approach to balance economic stimulation and inflation control, or an aggressive approach that could lead to short-term market boosts but long-term instability [14][15] - The outflow of funds from the U.S. stock market is more about asset reallocation rather than a mass exodus, with significant investments still directed towards U.S. bonds and money markets [16][19] Group 4 - Global stock markets, particularly in China and Europe, are attracting some capital, but the overall scale of this shift remains limited and reflects structural opportunities rather than a definitive trend [17][20] - If the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive rate cut strategy, it could lead to a temporary boost in global markets, but risks of a rapid outflow of capital could emerge if inflation pressures force a tightening of monetary policy [21]