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标普全球:亚洲烯烃供应过剩或持续

Group 1 - The oversupply situation in the Asian olefins market may take 3 to 4 years to alleviate, with new capacity investments slowing down [1] - Asian olefins profit margins have been negative in recent years, primarily due to the addition of over 10 million tons per year of ethylene capacity in Northeast Asia between 2024 and 2025, leading to the shutdown of multiple steam cracking units [1] - Japan plans to retire at least three naphtha cracking units by 2028, which is expected to reduce its ethylene capacity by approximately 20% [1] Group 2 - From 2020 to 2028, a total of 6.5 million tons per year of global ethylene capacity is expected to be closed [2] - Asian cracking facilities are considering switching from naphtha to ethane cracking due to cost advantages, with four ethane cracking units expected to be operational in Asia and Europe between 2025 and 2027, totaling 4.15 million tons per year [2] - Industry consolidation and efficiency improvements in response to global cracking capacity oversupply are expected to accelerate in high-cost regions between 2026 and 2027 [2]