Corn, Soybean Markets See ‘Sell the Rumor, Buy the Fact’ on USDA Data

Core Viewpoint - Sustaining price uptrends in corn and soybean futures will be challenging due to harvest pressure and commercial hedge selling, although recent resilience has been noted in the corn market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Corn production is estimated at 16.814 billion bushels, exceeding trade expectations of 16.502 billion bushels, with a yield decrease to 186.7 bushels per acre [3]. - Soybean production is forecasted at 4.301 billion bushels, also above trade expectations of 4.262 billion bushels, with a slight yield decrease to 53.5 bushels per acre [3]. - December corn futures rose to $4.30, marking a seven-week high, while November soybeans increased to $10.46 1/4, both closing at technically bullish weekly high prices [4]. Group 2: Export Demand - U.S. corn weekly export sales were reported at 539,900 MT for 2025-26, with strong demand from Mexico, although below the expected range [6]. - U.S. soybean export sales were reported at 541,100 MT for 2025-26, with traders focusing on improving global demand, particularly from China [7]. Group 3: Weather Impact - Weather forecasts indicate infrequent and light rain in the Midwest over the next two weeks, which may lead to minor declines in crop yields, although most crops are too advanced for significant yield reductions [8][9]. Group 4: Wheat Market Response - Winter wheat futures gained in sympathy with corn and soybean market rallies, with December soft red winter wheat futures up 4 1/4 cents and hard red winter wheat up 9 1/2 cents for the week [10]. - The USDA cut U.S. wheat estimated 2025-26 carryover by 25 million bushels, with no changes on the supply side but an increase in estimated exports [12].