Crude Prices Gain on Concern About Tighter Global Supplies

Group 1: Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics - A decrease in crude oil held on tankers worldwide is bullish for oil prices, with a reported decline of -7.2% week-over-week to 67.96 million barrels as of September 12 [1] - Weaker-than-expected global economic indicators, including a drop in the US Empire manufacturing survey and lower-than-expected industrial production in China, are bearish for energy demand and crude prices [2] - Ukraine's intensified attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are expected to curb Russian crude exports, tightening global oil supplies and supporting crude prices [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Escalating geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East are bullish for crude prices, with incidents such as Poland shooting down Russian drones and Israeli strikes in Qatar contributing to market uncertainty [6] - Concerns over potential new sanctions on Russian energy exports due to the ongoing war in Ukraine are providing additional support for crude prices [5] Group 3: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has agreed to raise crude production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, which is less than the previous increases, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [7] - Concerns about a global oil glut are emerging as the International Energy Agency raised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.33 million barrels per day, reflecting OPEC+'s plans to revive production [7][8] Group 4: US Oil Inventory and Production - Recent EIA reports indicate that US crude oil inventories are -3.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, with gasoline and distillate inventories also below their respective averages [9] - The number of active US oil rigs has increased slightly, rising by +2 to 416 rigs, although this remains above a 4-year low [10]