日本单月对美出口“五连降”，15%汽车关税生效后日美贸易会有起色吗？

Group 1 - Since April, Japan's exports to the U.S. have been declining for five consecutive months due to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1] - In August, Japan's overall trade deficit was 242.5 billion yen, a decrease of 65.9% year-on-year, with exports slightly down by 0.1% to 8.43 trillion yen [1] - Japan's exports to the U.S. in August fell by 13.8% year-on-year to 1.39 trillion yen (approximately 9.5 billion USD), marking an increase in the decline rate compared to July's 10% [1] Group 2 - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. shrank by 50.5% in August to 324 billion yen, primarily due to a 28.4% drop in automobile exports [3] - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Japanese automobiles to 15%, down from a previous rate of 25%, but this is still significantly higher than the pre-April rate of around 2.5% [4] - The analysis from Bloomberg Economics indicates that the 15% tariff level will still impact Japan's exports negatively in the future [5] Group 3 - Japan's strong economic performance in Q2 was supported by domestic demand, with GDP growth at an annualized rate of 1.0%, surpassing expectations [6] - However, there are concerns that upward revisions in private inventories may pressure economic growth in Q3, with a potential for negative growth [6] - Predictions suggest that the U.S. tariff policies could lead to a nearly 25% decline in Japan's exports to the U.S., threatening 0.5% of Japan's GDP [6]