美联储决议前金价回落 技术性回调还是见顶？

Core Viewpoint - The gold price has experienced a slight pullback after three consecutive days of increase, currently hovering around $3680, influenced by a modest recovery in the US dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and profit-taking in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is holding a two-day monetary policy meeting, with signs of weakness in the job market, including a slowdown in employment growth and the highest unemployment rate since 2021 [2]. - President Trump is pressuring for interest rate cuts, while Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium have strengthened market expectations for rate cuts [2]. - The market is pricing in a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by the end of the year, with a near certainty of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions, including attacks in Ukraine and military actions in Gaza, are providing safe-haven support for gold, limiting its further decline [2]. - The recent surge in gold prices reached a historical high of $3702.93 per ounce, confirming a bullish trend, but a pullback suggests a potential pause in this long-term upward movement [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 70, indicating an overbought condition, while the MACD histogram shows signs of diminishing bullish momentum, suggesting a possible consolidation phase before resuming the upward trend [4]. - The $3700 level is a critical psychological barrier; a successful breakout above this point could reinforce bullish sentiment and extend the prevailing trend towards new targets [4].